Walter Moloney reports that home sales on a national level are expected to remain steady in the coming months. He points to The Pending Homes Sales Index as his source of data, which shows home sales dipped just 1.1% from August of this year. (Yet he says they've dropped 13.6% from September of 2005, and I don't consider that exactly "steady".) David Lereah, Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS, says the index indicates that home sales will not be moving much in either direction during the coming months.
But I say, "WHO CARES?!? That may be great information, but I only want to know what's happening in MY neighborhood. That's all I really care about." You probably feel the same - right?
So, let’s limit today's look at the real estate market to Crofton, MD, where I live and work, using the most recent month that statistics are available: September 2006. This information was published by the Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc., the multiple listing service used by member REALTORS in the area.
* The Average List Price in Crofton was $358,085 (compared to $350,524 in 2005).
* The Average Sold Price was $336,255 (compared to $345,909 in 2005).
* The Median Sale Price was $300,000 (compared to just $294,000 in 2005).
In other words, with higher listing prices and lower sold prices, homes in September 2006 are selling at just 93.9% of listing price (compared to 98.68% in 2005). It's important to pay attention to the details - this statistic may be somewhat misleading because home sellers are foolishly listing their properties at prices even higher than last year's sales instead of facing the reality of this year's market. The difference between list and sale price, therefore, is over 5% (especially if you consider that some of these list prices might have been even higher initially and reduced during the listing period); but the average sold prices are down less than 3% from last year. ...And average sold prices are the figure that is most relevant when I make pricing recommendations to clients or consider my own property value.
Differentiating these details is one of the important things that REALTORS can do for consumers to help them with pricing - something that zillow.com and other web resources often don't and can't. (But web resources is a topic for another day.) Frankly, even the "Market Snapshot" and "InstaCompare" reports that website visitors receive from me are very general in nature - computer-generated and based on public records of recent sales in proximity to the subject property - without any "hands-on" analysis of either the subject property or the other properties cited in the report.
While the average sold price may be down less than 3% from September 2005 to September 2006, the days on market are up from 21 days to 76 days. Another telling statistic is that only 52 homes sold in September of this year – 6 fewer than September of last year – and the greatest number of sold homes (22) were condos priced between $200,000 and $300,000. That might be good news for the condo and townhome sellers, but less encouraging for single family home owners. Of course, it could be pure coincidence based upon what was on the market in September. This is something that would be interesting to track over a few months, to see whether or not this is "typical" in the Crofton market.
Market conditions are one of those things that you can’t control when you’re ready to buy or sell a home – along with the economy, politics, weather, season, competition and other factors. Yet they must be considered as you deal with factors you do control: pricing, condition, your choice of agent, and terms, for example. This is more of an art than a science – and that’s where an experienced REALTOR comes into the picture. The ability to balance the factors you cannot control and the ones you do will determine how fast your home sells, and for how much. This competitive edge in buying or selling a home is priceless, so don’t make the mistake of trying it on your own. It’s likely that you’ll lose, if you do.
While you're looking at the qualifications of different real estate agents and agencies, remember that REALTORS belong to a professional organization that dedicates itself to self-policing the industry. With a proliferation of discount real estate brokers in recent years, it's no longer safe for you to assume that all real estate service providers are REALTORS. Once you make that determination, be sure to consider the REALTORS' experience (how long in the business - have they been licensed more than 5 years and therefore worked in a buyer's market before), their professional designations (CRS, GRI, e-PRO), their industry leadership (what leadership roles do they serve in their Local, State and National Association of REALTORS?), and their reputation in the community - not just their fee structure. With real estate agents, as in other things, you usually get what you pay for! (More info on choosing an agent)
‘Want to know the market statistics in another zip code? Contact me today. If I don't have access to the information, I'll refer you to someone who does.
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Feedback or more information:
- Email: mwoda@remax.net
- Website: www.MargaretWoda.com
Truth about the Crofton real estate market
Crofton Maryland Real Estate
Source: Margaret Woda and MRIS
Copyright 2006. All rights reserved. Margaret Woda
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